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Thursday, June 15, 2006

Is EBay Inflation-Proof?

With all this talk about rising inflation, stocks for the past few weeks have taken a big dive down. The general theory is that as interest rates and inflation rises, stocks go down because higher interest rates mean more money will shift to safer investments, because returns there are more attractive.

However, we can't indiscriminately assume that all companies are equally hurt by inflation. After all, there might be some companies that are "inflation-proof". I wonder if EBay is one of them. Let's think about the factors:

* Ebay has pricing power. Since it's a near monopoly in several markets, in those markets, it has the ability to raise prices if needed.
* Inflation causes the price of goods to rise. Since Ebay takes a percentage of the price of the transaction, on this front, Ebay should do fine.
* Inflation may reduce consumer spending. It's highly possible that consumers will turn towards secondhand and used goods, which can benefit Ebay.

My guess is, over the long run, Ebay should weather rises in inflation pretty well, even though in the short term, people may indiscriminately drive the price down.

Disclosure: At the time of this writing I own stock or options in Ebay.

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